Structure of the Left

Both John and Glenn Reynolds are linking to some strategerizing about Cindy Sheehan:

It's as if Rove has set the Democrats up with a Kobayashi Maru. If a major Dem goes to Cindy's side, they're doomed as a national candidate. No one in Tennessee or Indiana is going to support someone who agrees with the policy that Afghanistan was a mistake. But if they don't, as Kaus points out, they'll never get nominated by the emboldened left-wing base.

Maybe. But doesn't this same analysis apply to the primaries in 2004? Howard Dean was the favorite of the far left and he didn't really get anywhere. Instead old reliable Lurch received the nomination.

There are two reasons why this might be the case:

1. It is quite possible that the Democratic base is actually made up of people significantly further to the right than the loonies on Democratic Underground or DailyKos. Were those people the true democratic base, would they have to pander so them so heavily in 2000 and 2004 to keep them from going Green?
2. As with the the 2004 presidential race, many Democrats may be much more interested in getting someone elected than who that person might be. Many primary voters went for Kerry because they thought his military record might make him more electable. Kerry ran on vaguely pro-war platform, not Dean's "get us the hell out" platform.

If either of these are true, then Cindy might not be the deathtrap democratic insiders are taking her for.